Facteurs explicatifs des évolutions récentes des défaillances d'entreprises: une analyse économétrique
Economie & Prévision, 2011, vol. n° 197-198, issue 1, 161-167
The monthly index of business failures measures the number of enterprises for which a court-ordered reorganisation has been initiated. While the indicator is naturally influenced by current economic trends, it also depends on past business-creation trends. The vector error-correction model (VECM) described here makes it possible to distinguish between these two effects. We show that the increase in the number of business failures in 2008 was mainly due to a demographic effect, while the 2009 increase was the result of highly negative economic conditions. The persistence of a large number of failures in the first half of 2010 may be due to the expiration of stimulus measures. We also examine the effects of the introduction of the ?freelance entrepreneur? (auto-entrepreneur) status in 2009.
Keywords: business failures; crisis; econometrics; VECM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_197_0161
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