Les préférences de fécondité à Shanghai dans un contexte de basse fécondité

M. Giovanna Merli, S. Philip Morgan and Patrick Festy

Population (french edition), 2011, vol. 66, issue 3, 601-626

Abstract: China has joined the group of low-fertility countries; it has a total fertility rate somewhere in the range of 1.4 to 1.6. Much speculation about China?s future fertility depends on whether individual?s fertility intentions and preferences are much higher than the state?s fertility goals. If so, then a relaxation of family planning restrictions could lead to a substantial fertility increase. We directly asked a probability sample of Shanghai registered residents and migrants whether a policy relaxation would lead them to have additional children. Our results show that small families (one or two children) are intended in this urban setting. If family planning policy were relaxed, a relatively small fraction (fewer than 14%) reports that they would revise their intentions upward. Even this modest increase is suspect because factors that can deflate fertility relative to intentions are likely more powerful than the inflationary ones (in Shanghai). These empirical findings help ground speculations on the future of fertility in the hypothetical absence of policy constraints.

Keywords: China; Fertility; fertility preferences; population policy; Shanghai (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=POPU_1103_0601 (application/pdf)
http://www.cairn.info/revue-population-2011-3-page-601.htm (text/html)
free

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cai:popine:popu_1103_0601

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Population (french edition) from Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire ().