Estimation de la mortalité par la méthode de projection intercensitaire par génération: application aux Îles Salomon

George Groenewold, Jeroen Van Ginneken, Bart De Bruijn and Joop De Beer

Population (french edition), 2007, vol. 62, issue 3, 451-486

Abstract: Developed after application of standard mortality estimation methods revealed inconsistent results, the Intercensus Cohort Component Method (ICCM) is used to estimate annual life expectancies at birth in an intercensus period. It consists of three main steps. The first step entails the iterative projection of age distributions of one census to the date of the next census, using different constant mortality assumptions, until best-fitting model life tables for men and women are found. These reflect average mortality conditions in the projection period. In the second step, the concomitant life expectancies at birth and estimates of their rate of change are used to derive regression equations, which are used to predict annual life expectancies and life tables. In a third step, the precision of estimates is assessed from results of a final projection that uses the predicted annual model life tables. ICCM-predicted life expectancies at birth for Solomon Islanders for 1999 are 61.0 and 61.5 years for men and women, respectively. These values are in accordance with estimates of fertility and migration.

Date: 2007
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