Une science de la prévision économique ?

Olivier Pilmis

Regards croisés sur l'économie, 2021, vol. n° 29, issue 2, 211-219

Abstract: Dealing with the scientificity of macroeconomic forecasting, the text highlights some of its properties as a production process. First, macroeconomic forecasting does not rely solely on the use of econometric models, but it is part of a broader division of expert labor. This division involves ?epistemic participation?, namely the inclusion of ?representatives? of the economy itself. This contrasts with the idea of forecasters watching the economy from above. Finally, certain concepts that are at the heart of economic forecasting, such as potential GDP, demonstrate that the descriptions produced by forecasters can never be neutral, but already include political qualifications of economic situations.

Date: 2021
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