La dynamique de la dette et du déficit publics en périodes de récession et d’expansion

Yannis Largent

Revue économique, 2017, vol. 68, issue 4, 571-594

Abstract: In this paper a Bayesian threshold VAR with debt dynamics is investigated in order to assess whether the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the deficit and public debt dynamics differ according to economic conditions. The main findings show that: 1) the Consumer Confidence indicator is sensitive to business cycle fluctuations and affects the predictions of the deficit and public debt-to-GDP ratios; 2) the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the deficit ratio are stronger in recession but more persistent in expansion state; 3) the safest ways for reducing the deficit and public debt ratios during economic slack are stimulating growth and confidence or a fiscal consolidation. Classification JEL : C11, C13, E62, H68.

JEL-codes: C11 C13 E62 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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