Prévisions d’analystes financiers et ordre de grandeur des prix: une approche expérimentale

Tristan Roger, Wael Bousselmi, Patrick Roger and Marc Willinger

Revue économique, 2021, vol. 72, issue 5, 843-870

Abstract: Recent empirical research in accounting and finance shows that the magnitude of stock prices influences analysts? price forecasts (Roger, Roger et Schatt [2018]). In this paper, we report the results of a novel experiment where some subjects are asked to forecast future prices in a continuous double auction market. In this experiment, two successive markets take place: one where the fundamental value is a small price and one where the fundamental value is a large price. Although market prices are higher (compared to fundamental value) in small price markets than in large price markets, our results indicate that analyst subjects? forecasts are more optimistic in small price markets compared to large price markets. Analyst subjects strongly anchor on past price trends when building their price forecasts and do not mitigate subject traders? bias. Overall, our experimental findings support the existence of a small price bias deeply rooted in the human brain.

Keywords: financial analysts; experimental markets; target prices; small price bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=RECO_725_0843 (application/pdf)
http://www.cairn.info/revue-economique-2021-5-page-843.htm (text/html)
free

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_725_0843

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Revue économique from Presses de Sciences-Po
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire ().