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Vitesse et composition des ajustements budgétaires en équilibre général: une analyse appliquée à la zone euro

Thomas Brand

Revue économique, 2017, vol. 68, issue HS1, 159-182

Abstract: This paper evaluates the fiscal stimulus in a general equilibrium model applied to the euro area as a function of the speed and composition of the adjustment following the previous expansion.?First, we show that some fiscal expansion instruments are effective even if we take into account the need for financing afterwards. Public investment and transfers to financially constrained households have net present fiscal multipliers?the sum of supplementary output, discounted by the interest rate, divided by the sum of supplementary government spending, calculated as in Uhlig [2010]?superior to one in the medium-term.?Second, we show that recent studies present results sensitive to the speed of fiscal adjustment, which is usually taken as a given.?Third, an accelerated adjustment after a fiscal stimulus could lead to negative effects on production after three or four years and a lower net present fiscal multiplier, whatever the instrument used for the fiscal expansion.?Finally, if the adjustment is gradual, the composition of the adjustment plays a smaller role on production. Classification JEL?: E62, E63, F41.

JEL-codes: E62 E63 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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