Effets macroéconomiques de la mutualisation de la dette en union monétaire

Cristina Badarau, Florence Huart and Ibrahima Sangaré

Revue économique, 2017, vol. 68, issue HS1, 183-209

Abstract: Proposals for implementing Eurobonds emerged during the Euro area crisis. Pros and cons have been presented to the European Parliament.?However, there has not been any assessment of the macroeconomic effects of pooling sovereign risk.?This paper aims at filling the gap. We build a DSGE model of a two-country currency union and compare macroeconomic outcomes under three scenarios of sovereign debt pooling relative to a baseline scenario where countries issue their own national sovereign bonds: 1) full pooling of debt with low-risk Eurobonds; 2) full pooling of debt with risky Eurobonds; and 3) partial pooling of debt with risk-free Eurobonds because issuance of such bonds is limited to 60% of each country?s GDP.?According to our results, a country that would increase its public spending would prefer the first scenario because the fiscal multiplier would be the highest (1,9 against 1,8 in the baseline scenario).?However, for the other country, the effects of the shock would be negative.?A partial pooling of sovereign debt would be preferable for the latter (with a multiplier of 2,2 against ? 1 in the baseline scenario).?All in all, a partial pooling could help reconcile diverging national interests among member countries of the Euro area. Classification JEL : F36, E44, E62.

JEL-codes: E44 E62 F36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Working Paper: Effets macroéconomiques de la mutualisation de la dette en union monétaire (2017)
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