Venezuela: l’insoutenabilité du modèle de croissance, source de tous les risques

Marie Albert and Cristina Jude

Revue d'économie financière, 2016, vol. n° 124, issue 4, 201-222

Abstract: While Venezuela is facing a major balance of payments crisis following the fall in oil prices, it is essential to understand the origins of this situation. This paper first examines the distortions and economic imbalances underlying this economy, including hyperinflation, and then assesses the country?s capacity to face the risk of default. To this end, we build two scenarios of financing needs and resources, highly dependent on oil prices and support from China. We thus show that in the absence of a major rebound in oil prices, the default appears inevitable. Finally, we analyze the growing social and political tensions that accompany this difficult economic climate. Classification JEL: E31, F31, H63, O54, Q32.

JEL-codes: E31 F31 H63 O54 Q32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Working Paper: Venezuela: l’insoutenabilité du modèle de croissance, source de tous les risques (2017)
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