Comment assurer la soutenabilité de la dette publique française ?

François Ecalle

Revue d'économie financière, 2022, vol. N° 146, issue 2, 217-228

Abstract: The public debt is sustainable when the State can pay off its loans wih interests, possibly by reborrowing. To secure its creditors, the State should be able to stabilize the debt, as a percentage of the GDP, when the economic outlook is normal, and consequently to stabilize the public deficit although it is on a growing slope in France. To stabilize the deficit is more difficult when the average interest rate on sovereign debt is larger than the nominal growth rate of the GDP. A stronger potential growth improves the public debt sustainability but it is cautious not to count on that. A higher inflation rate will not obviously reduce the public debt, as a percentage of the GDP, and its effects are negative on the long run. Tax and social contribution revenues can be increased but there is only a small margin to do it in France. Mutualizing public expenditures and debts at the european level is a good solution but it requires a solidarity between coutries that could lack. Controling the public expenditures growth remains a good solution but it could be insufficient in the french social and political current situation. Classification JEL : H50, H54, H60, H62, H63, H68.

JEL-codes: H50 H54 H60 H62 H63 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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