Projeter le nombre futur de dépendants: une approche multifactorielle avec un modèle Probit

Kévin Genna

Revue d'économie financière, 2023, vol. N° 152, issue 4, 27-36

Abstract: In recent years, France has experienced a major demographic shock as the baby-boom generation has entered old age. This ageing of the population brings with it new challenges, including the loss of autonomy. In this article, we propose a new approach for estimating the progression of dependency based on the estimation of a Probit model using Share survey data. We then use these results to project the number of dependents in France in 2030. Our results show that there will be nearly 3 million dependents in France at that time. The key feature of our approach is that it makes it possible to ascertain the future profile of dependents with a high degree of accuracy. We demonstrate that 50% of future dependents will have incomes of less than ?25,000 a year, preventing them from choosing an EHPAD-type facility, whose average annual cost is estimated at ?26,000, unless they are helped out. JEL classification: C35, I18, J14.

JEL-codes: C35 I18 J14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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