Le chômage structurel à 5 % en France ?

Eric Heyer and Xavier Timbeau

Revue de l'OFCE, 2002, vol. 80, issue 1, 115-151

Abstract: Using a standard state-space model with a reduced Phillips equation, we propose a model with better dynamics and explicit separation of NAIRU and structural unemployment. This model requires the use of a Kalman filter. Under reasonable assumptions on the innovations to the NAIRU equation, our NAIRU estimates are close to what is usual for France, while the value of the structural rate of unemployment is between 5 and 6%. This reconciles the measure of structural unemployment with the intuition of « full employment » unemployment rate. Some determinants of the structural unemployment are empirically validated. The inflation ? unemployment dilemma does not stand in the long run ; real interest rates and minimum wage positively influence U* ; productivity plays negatively ; replacement rate and the fiscal-social wedge have no impact on U*.

Date: 2002
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