Protectionnisme et productivité du travail en Europe avant 1914

Jean-Pierre Dormois

Revue de l'OFCE, 2002, vol. 82, issue 3, 11-47

Abstract: Far from fostering Continent Europe?s industrial catching-up process, late 19th Century protectionism is more likely to have slowed it down. This emerges from panel analysis linking real effective protection and labour productivity for three continental countries (France, Italy and Germany) relative to British indicators between 1870-1914. In the first panel, each country?s performance is assessed as an index of contemporary British productivity for similar industries. In the second panel, real effective protection rates are computed from trade statistics and for commodity classes corresponding to the industrial classification. Linear regressions conducted over the two panels suggest a negative and significant correlation between protectionism and productivity, implying a vindication of the Ricardian argument on free trade; an improved degree of significance at higher levels of disaggregation; protection working cumulatively through the industrial sector and depressing performance by slowing down structural change.

Date: 2002
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