Brésil: l'héritage de Fernando Henrique Cardoso

Alain Sand-Zantman and Jérôme Trotignon

Revue de l'OFCE, 2002, vol. 83, issue 4, 291-324

Abstract: Based on the theoretical literature on currency crisis, this paper analyses the heritage of F.H.Cardoso?s two mandates. Hyper-inflation has been defeated. But recent Asian and Russian crisis have brought about the collapse of the currency peg and a huge depreciation. After a fast recovery, the international slowdown and the uncertainties involved by the next elections (4th quarter 2002) have triggered a new speculative attack. The first section investigates the causes of Brazil weak credibility on international capital market. Highlighting the very sources of fiscal imbalances, the second section emphasises the need from deepening public sector reforms. Following these arguments, this paper concludes that conventional models of currency crises ? focusing inconsistencies in macroeconomic policy ? give a better explanation of Brazilian vulnerability than recent models based on self-fulfilling mechanisms, multiple equilibria, or credibility factors.

Date: 2002
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