La valeur du yuan. Les paradoxes du taux de change d'équilibre

Antoine Bouveret (abouveret@hotmail.com), Sana Mestiri and Henri Sterdyniak (sterdyniak@sciences-po.fr)

Revue de l'OFCE, 2006, vol. 98, issue 3, 77-127

Abstract: Using equilibrium exchange rate models (PPP, BEER and FEER), many authors have concluded that the renminbi is undervalued by 15 to 30% against the dollar, but they implicitly assume that the economy is at full-employment, a debatable hypothesis for developing economies such as China, whose unemployed amount to 150 millions people. On the contrary, we consider that China is facing massive unemployment; if investment depends on expected potential demand (from domestic consumption and foreign demand), then an undervalued exchange rate (by traditional standards) is required for its policy objectives. Therefore the exchange rate can be analyzed as a policy tool used by the Chinese authorities to pursue their growth strategy. Equilibrium exchange rate theories are not suited for developing countries. For growth and stability, a managed exchange rate regime seems better that a floating one. JEL Codes: F31, F42, O24.

JEL-codes: F31 F42 O24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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