CICE et Pacte de responsabilité: une évaluation selon la position dans le cycle. Simulations ex ante a partir d’un modele macroeconomique

Bruno Ducoudré, Eric Heyer and Mathieu Plane

Revue de l'OFCE, 2016, vol. N° 146, issue 2, 5-42

Abstract: To deal with mass unemployment the French government has chosen to favour a supply-side policy. Using the OFCE?s macroeconomic model for the French economy e-mod.fr , we evaluate the effects of the ?CICE? and the ?Pacte de responsabilité? on economic activity and employment, taking into account the business cycle, and we study the sensitivity of results to the value of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour. Excluding the impact of financing, these policies would create or save 530,000 jobs by 2018 and would have a positive effect on economic activity (+ 1.2 point of GDP). Including the effects of financing, there would be no gain on GDP and jobs created or saved would amount to about 290 000, ranging from 190 000 to 420 000 according to the business cycle and the capital / labour elasticity of substitution. JEL codes: E24, E27, H25, J30

Keywords: tax credit; labour cost; employment; competitiveness; simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E27 H25 J30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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