La routine de l’incertitude. Perspectives 2017-2018 pour l’économie mondiale et la zone euro

Département analyse et Prévision, Eric Heyer and Xavier Timbeau

Revue de l'OFCE, 2017, vol. N° 151, issue 2, 13-134

Abstract: With GDP growing at nearly 3%, the world economy seems resilient. The economic outlook appears less gloomy than was feared 18 months ago ? the negative factors have turned out to be less virulent than expected. This pattern is expected to continue in 2017 and 2018 as a result of monetary policies that will continue to boost economic activity and somewhat scaled down fiscal efforts. While oil prices have recently risen, they are not expected to soar, limiting the negative impact. The rise in inflation should even lower the deflationary risk that has hovered over the euro zone. However, the output gap would remains in negative territory in most countries indicating difficulties in establishing a recovery path that would bring down unemployment and reduce underemployment. JEL: F01.

Keywords: Macroeconomic forecasts; world economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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