Chômage, déficit, dette publique. Quelles marges pour les cinq prochaines années ?

Eric Heyer and Xavier Timbeau

Revue de l'OFCE, 2017, vol. N° 151, issue 2, 135-155

Abstract: This study provides a framework for reflection for the public debate on the trajectory of the economy for the next five years, "with unchanged environment and commitments kept". By 2022, the French economy growth will on average at a level close to 1.6%, rate slightly higher than its potential growth (1,3 %). The likelihood that the economy will return in recession, or that average growth will be above 3.0%, is extremely low (close to 5%).The unemployment rate will gradually decline to 8% at the end of 2022. This scenario allow a gradual reduction in the general government deficit to 1.2 percentage points of GDP in 2022. Public debt will reduced to 90.8 percentage points of GDP in 2022. Classification JEL : C53, E20, E62.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulations; economic outlook (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E20 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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