Chômage, déficit, dette publique. Quelles marges pour les cinq prochaines années ?
Eric Heyer () and
Xavier Timbeau ()
Revue de l'OFCE, 2017, vol. N° 151, issue 2, 135-155
This study provides a framework for reflection for the public debate on the trajectory of the economy for the next five years, "with unchanged environment and commitments kept". By 2022, the French economy growth will on average at a level close to 1.6%, rate slightly higher than its potential growth (1,3 %). The likelihood that the economy will return in recession, or that average growth will be above 3.0%, is extremely low (close to 5%).The unemployment rate will gradually decline to 8% at the end of 2022. This scenario allow a gradual reduction in the general government deficit to 1.2 percentage points of GDP in 2022. Public debt will reduced to 90.8 percentage points of GDP in 2022. Classification JEL?: C53, E20, E62.
Keywords: Monte Carlo simulations; economic outlook (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E20 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Working Paper: Chômage, déficit, dette publique: Quelles marges pour les cinq prochaines années ? (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_151_0135
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Revue de l'OFCE from Presses de Sciences-Po
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire ().