Partie I. Europe/monde: accords ou récession. Perspectives 2019-2021 pour l’économie mondiale et la zone euro

Département analyse et Prévision, Eric Heyer and Xavier Timbeau

Revue de l'OFCE, 2019, vol. N° 163, issue 3, 15-183

Abstract: After a peak in growth in 2017, global economic activity has been showing signs of cooling down. In 2018, world GDP rose by 3.3%, compared to 3.5% a year earlier. Clouds continued to accumulate during the first half of 2019 due to heightening geopolitical tensions. In Europe, uncertainty persists over the conditions for Brexit, and the political situation in Italy is experiencing ongoing change. The trade war is continuing, and a new front between the United States and Europe is opening, raising the level of uncertainty. Confidence surveys have deteriorated. In a context marked by continuing change in China?s growth model and the prospect of the end of the expansion cycle in Germany and the United States, these signals suggest that the slowdown will continue and intensify in 2019 and 2020. The economic outlook rests on political and trade agreements that have not yet been finalized, posing challenges for monetary and fiscal policy if the downturn amplifies.

Keywords: macroeconomic forecasts; world economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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