Partie II. France: passe en avant. Perspectives 2019-2021 pour l’économie française

Département analyse et Prévision, Eric Heyer and Xavier Timbeau

Revue de l'OFCE, 2019, vol. N° 163, issue 3, 185-250

Abstract: Following a year of strong growth (2.4% in 2017), the French economy experienced a sharp slowdown in 2018 (1.7%). Growth was hit by an unfavourable fiscal calendar, marked deterioration in the external environment and sharp social conflicts. Year-on-year growth rose from 3% at end 2017 to 1.2% at end 2018. Despite the slowdown in the economies of France?s main trading partners, first of all Germany, activity held up in 2019 (1.3%), boosted by tax measures for households. These measures boosted household purchasing power in 2019 (+2.4%), and the unemployment rate should fall gradually from the current 8.5% to 8.3% at end 2019, 8.2% at end 2020 and 8.0% at end 2021. Although France was in breach of the Stability and Growth Pact on public deficit reduction, growth exceeded the euro area average for the first time in six years. In 2020, driven by relatively strong domestic demand thanks to a supportive fiscal policy, the economy should grow by 1.3%, followed by a return in 2021 to potential growth (1.2%). The public deficit should push up to 98.9% of GDP in 2019 and 2020 (after 98.4% in 2018), before falling back to 98.5% in 2021.

Keywords: French; economic; outlook (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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