Mesurer l’impact de la crise Covid-19. L’expérience de la Banque de France

Vincent Bignon and Olivier Garnier

Revue de l'OFCE, 2020, vol. N° 166, issue 2, 45-57

Abstract: In the context of the unprecedented health crisis following the spread of Covid-19, the Banque de France has adapted its information system in real time. Administrative restrictions have had a varying impact depending on the sector. First of all, the monthly survey of business trends (the EMC) was used to estimate the losses in activity and GDP. It included two new types of questions to assess, respectively, the level of activity for the past month and the month to come as well as the percentage of the workforce working remotely. The quality of the collection of survey data was maintained. In April, in industry, the automotive sector was the most vulnerable sector (11% of the normal level of activity against 51% on average), while in market services (50% of the normal level of activity) the sectors hit hardest were hotels (1% of the normal level), catering (6%) and automotive repair (16%). The adaptation of the EMC also made it possible to assess the fall in GDP at 32% for the second half of March and at 27% for the month of April. After lockdown eased, the loss in GDP was rapidly reduced and was only 5% below the normal level in August. The main financial accounts of households and businesses at the commercial banks were also monitored at a higher frequency (weekly). This data collection made the following observations possible very quickly between March and August: (1) for companies, a simultaneous surge in their debt (+178 billion euros in gross debt) and their cash flow (+174 billion); and (2) for households, a sharp increase in their bank savings (+87 billion).

Keywords: nowcasting; business cycle; survey; credit; savings (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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