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Partie I. L’épargne masque la relance. Perspectives 2020-2021 pour l’économie mondiale et la zone euro

Département analyse et Prévision, Eric Heyer () and Xavier Timbeau ()

Revue de l'OFCE, 2020, vol. 168, issue 4, 9-102

Abstract: This forecasting work was carried out on the basis of a gradual return to a less constrained health situation (i.e. prophylactic measures close to those of summer 2020) from the second quarter of 2021. Worldwide, value added will not return to its end-2019 level until the end of 2021, after falling by more than 10% in the second quarter of 2020, thus implying the loss of two years of growth due to the health crisis. Based on our forecast made in October 2019, the evaluation of this loss of activity linked to the Covid-19 crisis at the end of 2021 lies between -2 GDP points (Germany and Italy) and -6 GDP points (Spain). For China, the loss amounts to 2.3 GDP points. In the main developed countries, ?forced? savings were built up during the health crisis. At mid-2020, we estimate this at nearly 90 billion pounds sterling for British households, or 12?points of their disposable income (gross disposable income ? GDI), at more than 60 billion euros in France and Germany (respectively 8.6 and 7.6?points of GDI) and nearly 40 billion euros in Spain and Italy (10 and 6.4 GDI points, respectively). This average savings hides a process of rising poverty.

Date: 2020
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