Partie II. France: croissance vulnérable. Perspectives 2020-2021 pour l’économie française

Département analyse et Prévision, Eric Heyer and Xavier Timbeau

Revue de l'OFCE, 2020, vol. N° 168, issue 4, 103-136

Abstract: In France, for 2020 as a whole, we forecast a 9% fall in GDP. 55% of the shock should be absorbed by government administrations. Companies will see their income fall by 56 billion (which corresponds to 41% of the shock), and their margin rate will drop by 4.2 points of value added over the year. The reduction in household income will be limited (-5 billion), and the accumulation of "Covid-19 savings" will be high, representing 86 billion euros over the whole of 2020. The deficit for 2020 should reach -8.9% of GDP, a historic peak since the national accounts became available. In 2021, the public deficit should stand at -6.3% of GDP. The number of jobless will increase by 810,000 over 2020, and the unemployment rate will reach 11% by year’s end. Unemployment should fall by 400,000 people in 2021, and the unemployment rate will come to 9.6% of the workforce by the end of 2021, i.e. 1.5 points higher than the level seen at end 2019. The stimulus plan would boost GDP by 1.1% for 2021, with growth at 7%. The fiscal calibration of the crisis response measures taken over two years covers 37% of the cumulative loss in activity over 2020-21, a share similar to the 2009-2010 stimulus plan. In 2022, the new measures in the recovery plan should have an impact of 0.9 points of GDP on activity.

Date: 2020
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