L’impact de la baisse du prix du pétrole liée à la crise de la Covid-19 sur les entreprises et ménages français

Eric Heyer and Paul Hubert

Revue de l'OFCE, 2020, vol. N° 168, issue 4, 137-162

Abstract: This article aims to study the effects of changes in the price of oil on consumer and producer prices during the period of the Covid-19 crisis. To do this, we perform a double breakdown of production prices (both between its different components and between sectors), and we construct a “lockdown” consumer price index corresponding to the consumption basket in this particular period. We then use a non-linear model to specifically identify the effect of a sharp drop in oil prices during a period of recession. Our estimates suggest that the oil shock of early 2020 will have very little effect on inflation. Households would therefore not benefit from an increase in their purchasing power. As for business, the impact of falling oil prices on their production prices is real and should enable them to restore their unit margins. Our results indicate that this drop in the price of a barrel could improve business unit margins by more than 1/2 point in 2020, an estimate that could even rise to 1 point for the transport, energy and agriculture sectors.

Keywords: oil; Covid-19 pandemic; inflation; unit margins (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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