Partie I. Réserve de croissance. Perspectives 2021-2022 pour l’économie mondiale et la zone euro

Département analyse et Prévision, Eric Heyer and Xavier Timbeau

Revue de l'OFCE, 2021, vol. N° 172, issue 2, 11-146

Abstract: These international forecasts are made under the assumption that progress with collective immunity will allow a significant lifting of restrictions in every country from the summer of 2021. World growth will then come to 5.5% in 2021, after contracting by 3.4% in 2020. In the major developed countries, growth will hit 3% in Germany, 4% in Italy and 6% in the United Kingdom, offsetting part of the fall in activity observed in 2020. In the United States, the recovery is expected to be stronger than last year?s recession (+6% after -3.5%). Public support for household disposable income in 2020 has led to a strong accumulation of savings. In Germany, by the end of 2021 the additional savings stemming from the Covid-19 crisis, excluding precautionary savings, will reach 9 points of disposable income. The comparable figure will be around 12 points in Italy and Spain, almost 15 points in the United Kingdom and 16 points in the United States. In 2022, the global economic situation will depend heavily on how households use the "Covid-savings" they?ve accumulated. If one-fifth of the extra savings is consumed in 2022, growth will be 5.5 percent in Germany and Italy, about 8 percent in Spain and 6 percent in the United States. If these savings are not consumed, then growth will come in at 4 percent in Germany and Italy, about 6 percent in Spain and 4 percent in the United States. This has major implications for the public debt.

Date: 2021
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