Partie I. Le prix de la reprise. Perspectives 2021-2022 pour l’économie mondiale et la zone euro

Département analyse et Prévision, Eric Heyer and Xavier Timbeau

Revue de l'OFCE, 2021, vol. 174, issue 4, 11-120

Abstract: Almost two years after the Sars-Cov2 virus first appeared, the health crisis is not over. The number of cases continues to rise, wave after wave, around the world. But there is ongoing progress with vaccinations, which has slowed the rate of infection and, above all, the number of hospitalizations and deaths. Prophylactic measures are still in place, but on a much smaller scale than in March-April 2020. The outlook for growth in the first half of 2021 is still strongly subject to the waves of the pandemic, but prospects have improved. Assuming that new variants don?t compromise the effectiveness of the vaccines, the impact of the crisis should gradually lessen in 2021 and 2022. Global growth, after falling by 3.6% in 2020, will hit 5.8% in 2021. The strong recovery is being accompanied by higher inflation. This should be temporary and will not lead central banks to undertake any sudden tightening of monetary conditions. Fiscal support measures will disappear in 2022, but unlike in the post-subprime era, countries, especially those in the euro zone, will not engage in premature fiscal consolidation. In 2022, the growth path in the developed countries will depend on the savings behaviour of households that have built up their financial wealth during the lockdowns. Assuming that the savings rate stabilises at its end-2019 level, activity in these countries will slow slightly in 2022, to 4.1% on average per year, which should not interrupt the catching-up process.

Date: 2021
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