L’évolution des salaires depuis la crise de la Covid-19 dans les principaux pays industrialisés

Christophe Blot, Sabine Le Bayon and Benoît Williatte

Revue de l'OFCE, 2023, vol. N° 180, issue 1, 207-240

Abstract: The post-Covid recovery has been accompanied by high inflation, largely driven by energy prices. This shock was preceded by the pandemic, which severely disrupted the functioning of the labour market, causing tensions to emerge. How did wages react in this context? This study describes wage dynamics in the main industrialised countries since the end of 2019. We begin by pointing out that wage data come from different sources and can be constructed using different approaches, which makes understanding their evolution more delicate than that of prices. For example, over the recent period, national accounts data reveal differences relative to wages measured by fixed-composition surveys, which is partly linked to the effects of the structure of employment, which has been affected by part-time work and lockdowns. Likewise, changes in the minimum wage can reveal significant divergences depending on the methods of revaluation and the initial level of these wages. Nevertheless, wage growth has been stronger in the United States than in most European countries, meaning that the purchasing power of American workers has been more resilient overall, which may also reflect the situation on the US labour market, which is generally under greater pressure. Nevertheless, it is likely that wage adjustments are still ongoing. The pick-up in inflation occurred earlier in the US, which could explain the faster rise in wages. It is therefore likely that wages will continue to rise at a higher rate in 2023 than was seen between 2010 and 2019.

Date: 2023
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