Partie II. Sous la menace du chômage. Perspectives 2023-2024 pour l’économie française

Eric Heyer and Xavier Timbeau

Revue de l'OFCE, 2023, vol. N° 182, issue 3, 141-188

Abstract: In 2023, with inflation still high (+5.2% in 2023, as in 2022) and a context marked by a sharp rise in the ECB?s key interest rates, GDP is expected to grow by 0.9%. The year 2024 should be marked by lower inflation (3.3% on average year-on-year and 2.3% year-on-year at year end), but growth should remain modest (0.8%) due to the full materialization of the increases in key interest rates. According to our assessment, monetary policy should result in reducing GDP growth by -0.9 percentage points in 2024 (after -0.4 percentage points in 2023). The second half of 2023, but especially 2024, should see a reversal of the unemployment curve, which will rise from the current 7.2% to 7.9% at the end of next year in a context of marked growth in the active population due to the implementation of the pension reform. The sluggish growth in activity and the partial recovery of past productivity losses is likely to put an end to the strong dynamism of employment observed in recent years (-53,000 in 2024 year-on-year, after +140,000 in 2023 and +509,000 in 2022). In contrast to 2022 and 2023, real wages are expected to increase (0.6%) in 2024, limiting the negative impact of job losses (-0.1%) on the wage bill. In 2024, real wages (deflated by the CPI) should return to its 2019 level. After 2022 was marked by a contraction in purchasing power per consumption unit (CU) (-0.4% following 2.1% in 2021), households are expected to see their real income rise again in 2023 and 2024 (0.7% and 0.4% per CU, respectively), driven again this year by job creation, income from assets and tax support, and next year by a rise in real wages. Despite the curtailment of exceptional fiscal measures, the government deficit is expected to remain at 4.8% of GDP in 2023 and 2024, mainly due to the impact of sluggish growth on tax revenues.

Date: 2023
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