La prévision économique des médailles par nation aux jeux olympiques de paris 2024

Wladimir Andreff, Nicolas Scelles, Liliane Bonnal, Madeleine Andreff and Pascal Favard

Revue de l'OFCE, 2024, vol. N° 185, issue 2, 13-56

Abstract: The sporting performance assigned to France?s national team for the 2024 Olympics is compared to the forecasts of a macro-econometric model that identified 95% of sporting outcomes at the Tokyo Games. The country variables are : population, GDP/inhabitant, the number of athletes per team, the number of medals won (net of disqualifications for doping) at the previous Olympics, and dummies standing for the host country effect, the political regime, sport specialization, the country hosting the next Games, and another dummy for having hosted the previous Olympics. All Tobit and Hurdle estimations forecast the same four major medal winners with the same ranking : the teams from the US, China, Russia and Great Britain. France?s national squad would win 47/48 medals (extreme margins of the confidence intervals : 43 and 60), which would rank it either 5th or 6th in medal totals.

Keywords: Olympic games; sports performance; economic forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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