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Désinflation par la politique monétaire ou désinflation par la politique de change ?

Patrick Artus

Revue d'économie politique, 2003, vol. 113, issue 2, 255-272

Abstract: Countries experiencing excessive inflation can use either a reduction in the growth rate of money supply (disinflation using monetary policy) or a stabilization of the exchange rate (disinflation using the exchange rate policy). In the past, the first choice proved better than the second, which often led to a decline in real growth or to a balance of payments crisis. We build a theoretical model, starting from the usual balance of payments crisis model, but incorporating many additional features: a distinction between the traded goods sector and the non-traded goods sector, imperfect capital mobility, a determination of the exchange rate and of external debt. We try to understand the effects of the two possible disinflationnary policies, including the possibility that some kind of expectational inertia appears, which implies that one or the other policy have a real cost.

Date: 2003
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