La question du régime de change en Asie de l'Est: Vers un bloc monétaire régional ?
Laëtitia Guilhot and
Cyriac Guillaumin ()
Revue d'économie politique, 2013, vol. 123, issue 2, 265-298
Since the financial crisis of?1997-1998, East Asian countries have developed many initiatives for monetary and financial cooperation. The global crisis that began in?2007 has further accelerated the process of cooperation. The Multilateralization of the Chiang Mai Initiative in May?2010?became the key element in establishing an Asian Monetary Fund. This strengthening of institutional integration, coupled with an increased economic interdependence, raises issues regarding the possible creation of a de facto currency bloc in the region. The aim of this paper is to explore this hypothesis using nonstationary panel data. The tools of convergence are translated to the exchange rates and we test, after having defined it, the hypothesis of a currency bloc using the three generations of panel unit root tests. Our results show, firstly, a decoupling of East Asian currencies vis-?-vis the dollar and, secondly, the emergence of a convergence towards regional targets.
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