Soutenabilité des finances locales en France. Prévisions à l'horizon 2020 et simulations de mesures d'équilibre budgétaire

Marie-Estelle Binet (), Guy Gilbert, Alain Guengant and Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte ()

Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, 2016, vol. Juin, issue 3, 557-586

Abstract: We develop an empirical framework of local public finance including all the French Municipalities, Departments and Regions. We provide forecasts of budget dynamics at the 2020 horizon based on estimates using yearly data from 1982 to 2010. Our results show that French Departments and Regions will exhibit imbalanced budgets before 2020, with financial ratios greater than 100%, the critical threshold. Alternative sustainable paths of budgets are thus simulated. By contrast, French Municipalities are not subject to imbalanced budgets and will be able to sustain their investment level.

Keywords: forecasting; local jurisdictions; prospective financial analysis; time series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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