Determinants of local population growth and economic development in France between 1990 and 2006

Jens Abildtrup, Mohamed Hilal, Virginie Piguet and Bertrand Schmitt

Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, 2018, vol. Janvier, issue 1, 91-128

Abstract: This paper analyzes local population and employment growth drivers for French data aggregated at a local level for the 1990-2006, 1990-1999, 1999-2006 periods. A simultaneous equation system, linking changes in local population and employment, is estimated. Jobs are split between export (manufacturing) and personal service sectors. The main findings are that ?people follow jobs? and simultaneously that ?jobs follow people?. However, the population only follows ?export? jobs and this effect is strengthening between the first and the second period. Whereas the ?jobs follow people? assertion is true whatever the period for the ?residential? sector, it is observed for the 1990-1999 period only for the export sector and this relation becomes insignificant for the period 1999-2006. While it is difficult to know which effect is dominant over the first period, the results lead to a dominant impact of ?people follow (export) jobs? in the most recent period.

Keywords: local growth; regional adjustment model; simultaneous equations system; spatial econometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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