Prévisions d’experts et politique monétaire de la BCE

Claudiu Albulescu (), Christian Aubin, Noëlle Duport and Daniel Goyeau

Revue française d'économie, 2015, vol. Volume XXX, issue 3, 227-263

Abstract: This paper examines the relevance and consistency of the information contained in the quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the ECB. It first confirms that monetary policy reacts more to inflation and unemployment expectations than to their achievements. It then shows that, firstly, experts? forecasts take into account effectiveness of monetary policy on inflation and growth and, secondly, forecasters expect a significant response of monetary policy to anticipated movements in inflation and unemployment. These findings support both the ideas of a global consistency of the surveyed experts? forecasts and of a transparency of the ECB?s monetary policy.

Date: 2015
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Working Paper: Prévisions d’experts et politique monétaire de la BCE (2015)
Working Paper: Prévisions d’experts et politique monétaire de la BCE (2014)
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