Quelle cible d’inflation pour les pays de l’UEMOA ?

Abdoul Khadry Sall

Revue française d'économie, 2019, vol. XXXIV, issue 4, 71-112

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to contribute to determining an inflation target for the WAEMU countries. The optimal inflation threshold, defined as the level of inflation that maximizes economic growth, for each WAEMU country is determined endogenously using the threshold-effect method developed by Hansen [1996, 2000]. Tested on data covering the period 1980-2016, the model suggests a non-linear relationship in WAEMU countries. Based on the positive or neutral effects of inflation on growth, we find an optimal inflation rate in two cases : 1,6% in Burkina Faso, 7,5% in Togo. In four cases, we note an interval of indifference : inflation, to be optimal, must be between 1,3% and 6,9% in Côte d’Ivoire, between 1,8% and 5,4% in Mali, between 0 and 6,2% in Senegal, less than 4% in Niger. In the sole case of Benin, modeling does not allow to characterize an optimal inflation rate. The growth losses that could be generated by the use of the 2% inflation target set by the Monetary Policy Committee in place of the optimal rate of inflation would be zero in all countries except from Togo. The BCEAO approach would seem globally relevant. Together with that of Benin, the case of Togo also encourages better identification of the determinants of growth in the countries of the zone.

Date: 2019
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