Incertitude et dynamiques du chômage

Malak Kandoussi

Revue française d'économie, 2021, vol. XXXVI, issue 1, 99-140

Abstract: The current Covid-19 crisis as well as the 2008 financial crisis suggest that variations in uncertainty play a major role in labor market fluctuations. This study analyzes the impact of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics. The empirical study shows that these uncertainty shocks, measured by the volatility of the stock index, have a significant impact on the unemployment rate in the United States. In order to explain these facts, a quantitative version of the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model is developed and shows that the introduction of uncertainty shocks allows this textbook model to better account for the observed characteristics of the U.S. labor market dynamics on one hand. On the other, it also explains the impact of rare episodes such as economic crises.

Date: 2021
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