Incertitude sur la politique commerciale et cycle économique

Céline Poilly and Fabien Tripier

Revue française d'économie, 2023, vol. XXXVIII, issue 1, 183-218

Abstract: This article reviews the literature on the links between trade policy uncertainty and the business cycle. This literature lies at the intersection of two fields of research that initially developed independently. The first field is devoted to fluctuations in uncertainty as sources of business cycles, and the second to uncertainty about trade policy in the context of trade agreements. We show how the context of the US trade war initiated in 2018 has fostered a rapprochement between these two fields, both in terms of empirical measures of uncertainty and its transmission mechanisms to the economy. We also highlight the need for further analysis of the appropriate cyclical policies to deal with trade policy uncertainty in the current context of persistent trade tensions between the US, China and Europe.

Date: 2023
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