Le cinquième élargissement européen marque-t-il la fin de la transition économique postsocialiste ?

Wladimir Andreff

Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, 2003, vol. XLII, issue 3, 47-60

Abstract: This paper elaborates on the criteria derived from economic analysis to fix when the post-socialist economic transition will end up. The fifth European Union enlargement is more a symbol than such a criterion, since the new member states will wait during a second transition period until enjoying the full advantage of EU policies. The criteria of macroeconomic convergence, both nominal and real, exhibit a narrowing gap between Central Eastern Europe and the EU, but they do not enable to delineate the end of transition. Using the level of economic development and the full enforcement of the acquis communautaire by the new member states as the criteria would delay the transition deadline by two to four decades. We stick here to the simultaneous phasing out of economic processes that are typical of the path from centrally planned economy to market economy. These processes are transformational recession, transitional unemployment, « barterisation», and managerial entrenchment. They will disappear later than 2014 ? the first year for the new state members benefiting 100% of the enlargement advantages ? in most transition economies.

Keywords: European enlargement; transition economies; acquis communautaire; economic institutions; convergence; development stage; recession; unemployment; barter economy; managers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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