ARGENTINE, BRÉSIL, MEXIQUE, FACE À LA CRISE INTERNATIONALE

Pierre Salama

Revue Tiers-Monde, 2009, vol. n° 197, issue 1, 183-202

Abstract: According to most economists and those in power in Latin America the crisis was not going to happen : all the indicators of vulnerability had improved in most of these economies. However it did happen and day by day looked more and more severe. So indicators of vulnerability are not enough to establish reliable forecasts. More reliable indicators of weakness such as the estimation of the exchange rate and other very high equalities must also be taken into account. The worse these indicators are, the more difficult it is to stand up to the crisis and vice versa. Since the crisis in developed countries has taken on a systematic character and the signs of weakness are not very good, its repercussions will be high in emerging economies in spite of improved signs of vulnerability.

Keywords: vulnerability; fragility; exchange rate; inequalities; international specialisation; contagion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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