Les hausses récentes des cours des matières premières traduisent-elles l'entrée dans un régime de prix plus élevés ?

Cécile Couharde (), Vincent Geronimi and Armand Taranco

Revue Tiers-Monde, 2012, vol. n°211, issue 3, 13-34

Abstract: In this paper, we seek to determine whether the recent increase in commodity prices, and especially in prices of food products, reflects a regime switch towards higher price levels. Accordingly, we use a Kalman filter and a Markov-switching model in order to analyze the evolution of terms-of-trade for commodities and food products over the period 1900-2010. Our results support the hypothesis that the commodity terms-of-trade have moved, since 2006 (2008 for food products), to a new regime characterized by an average price level about 50% higher than the one that prevailed over the period 1986-2005 (1986-2007 for food products).

Keywords: Commodities; Kalman filter; Markov-switching model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Working Paper: Les hausses récentes des cours des matières premières traduisent-elles l'entrée dans un régime de prix plus élevés? (2012)
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