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Option Implied Probability Density Functions: Methodology and Use in Understanding Investor Sentiment

O'Donnell Seamus and Mary O'Keeffe
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O'Donnell Seamus: Central Bank of Ireland
Mary O'Keeffe: Central Bank of Ireland

Quarterly Bulletin Articles, 2016, 85-94

Abstract: In recent years there has been lots of research into the extraction of information from the options market. This signed article presents a modelling approach which depicts estimates of future movements of an asset price, as priced by investors. They are of benefit as they incorporate information from the full distribution of investor beliefs. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the benefits of such models and provide guidance on how they may be constructed and interpreted.

Date: 2016-10
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