Employment Growth: Where Do We Go From Here?
Stephen Byrne and
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Tara McIndoe-Calder: Central Bank of Ireland
Quarterly Bulletin Articles, 2019, 122-148
The improvement in the Irish labour market since late 2012 has been remarkable. Unemployment has fallen towards 5 per cent, while the number of persons employed in the state has now surpassed it pre-crisis peak. Using detailed microdata from the CSO’s Labour Force Survey, we suggest that decreases in unemployment and increased labour force participation will not be sufficient to support employment growth at current levels over the short to medium term. As such, strong net inward migration will be the most important source of employment growth if the economy continues to grow at the rates seen over the last number of years.
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