Euro Area Slowdown - a Country-Sector Analysis

David Byrne and Conor Parle

Quarterly Bulletin Articles, 2019, 149-163

Abstract: During the second half of 2018 and first half of 2019, euro area growth has been slower than in previous years. Surveys of growth imply that the manufacturing sector has led this slowdown, with German manufacturing being particularly affected. This Article uses granular measures of output and the labour market to examine whether the slowdown is concentrated in a small number of sectors or regions, or is more broadly evident. Examining data at the level of pairs of euro area countries and economic sectors, we find evidence for a small, broad-based, weakening of growth rates across countries and sectors. However, the dominant contribution to lower output growth comes from manufacturing in a small number of European countries, most notably Germany. Growth in other sectors and countries, and in the labour market, remains relatively robust but faces a risk of weakness subsequently spilling over from the manufacturing sector.

Date: 2019-07
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