Inflation Forecasting at the Central Bank of Ireland

Stephen Byrne, Paraic O’Gorman, John Scally and Zivile Zekaite
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Paraic O’Gorman: Central Bank of Ireland
John Scally: Central Bank of Ireland

Quarterly Bulletin Articles, 2024, 71-107

Abstract: Analysing changes in inflation and forecasting its future path are important exercises in assessing overall economic conditions and as an input to domestic and monetary policy decision making. Lately, large and unexpected shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, have complicated this task and have prompted many forecasters to review their approaches. This Article provides an overview of the recent experience in analysing and forecasting inflation in Ireland, outlines the tools and methods used by Central Bank staff to conduct these analyses, and how those practices have been changing in light of recent experience and methodological advances.

Date: 2024-06
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cbi:qtbart:y:2024:m:06:p:71-107

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