PREDICTABILITY OF FINANCIAL CRISES: TESTING K.R.L. MODEL IN THE CASE OF TURKEY

Zeynep Karacor and Korhan Gokmenoglu ()
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Zeynep Karacor: Selçuk University, Department of Economics Konya, Turkey

Annals - Economy Series, 2012, vol. 2, 5-16

Abstract: The aim of this study is to test predictability of 2007 Global Economic Crisis which hit Turkey by the help of macroeconomic data of Turkey. K.R.L. model is used to test the predictability. By the method of analyzing various leading early warning indicators, the success of the model in forecasting the crises is surveyed. The findings do not support K.R.L. models. Possible reasons for this are stated at the article.

Keywords: Financial Crises; Leading Indicators; Signal Approach; K.R.L. Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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