AUTOREGRESSIVE EVOLUTIONS FOR MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS DO CONFIRM CHAOS THEORIES IN UNITED STATES

Nicolae Anca-Iuliana
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Nicolae Anca-Iuliana: THE BUCHAREST ACADEMY OF ECONOMIC STUDIES

Annals - Economy Series, 2018, vol. 4, 29-45

Abstract: Ten years ago, international crisis (beginning 2008) has become a fundamental element for national economies. In addition to economic burden, the crisis has put governments in an instability financial situation also, by both domestic and overseas transactions. National Governments main purpose is to provide sustainable development by attempting to prospect and plot economic evolutions in order to reduce financial influences overall. The core question is then: Are these countries able to anticipate these evolutions? This paper aims to determine how Chaos Theories analyses for Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumption per Capita influence the trend of these indicators, but not in the classic macroeconomic dependency direction. The purpose of this article is to provide a core framework from the Chaos Theory perspective in order to create the context for Auto Regressive and Mobile Average (ARMA Models) alternatives methodology in practice, alternatives, and forecasts. The estimations based on econometric and cybernetic models by using ARMA and Hurst Coefficient highlight the fact that Real GDP and Consumption per capita have similar evolutions, but are not directly correlated in the classic theory because here, similarity and persistency are main factors for general evolutions of these macroeconomic indicators.

Keywords: ARMA Modelling; Chaos Theory; Fractal Theory; Time Series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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