FORECASTING ARECA NUT MARKET PRICES USING THE ARIMA MODEL: A CASE STUDY OF INDIA

Abhaya K. Kumar, Prakash Pinto, Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar, Cristi Spulbar (), Ramona Birau and Minea Elena Loredana
Additional contact information
Abhaya K. Kumar: DEPARTMENT OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, MANGALORE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING, MOODABIDRI, INDIA
Prakash Pinto: DEPARTMENT OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, ST. JOSEPH ENGINEERING COLLEGE, VAMANJOORU, MANGALORE, INDIA
Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar: DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING & FINANCE, COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, KINGDOM UNIVERSITY, SANAD, BAHRAIN
Ramona Birau: C-TIN BRANCUSI UNIVERSITY OF TARGU JIU, FACULTY OF EDUCATION SCIENCE, LAW AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, ROMANIA
Minea Elena Loredana: UNIVERSITY OF CRAIOVA, FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, ROMANIA

Annals - Economy Series, 2021, vol. 2, 4-18

Abstract: India is the major producer of Areca nut in the world. Volatile demand and price are the major challenges for the Areca nut growers in India. The use of time series models to manage the price risk has become the interest of academicians today. This paper deals with developing an appropriate model to predict the prices of a new variety of Areca nut in Karnataka using monthly price data for the period January 2009 to December 2018. Box Jenkins ARIMA methodology is used to develop the model. Along with ARIMA estimates, log-likelihood, Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian (BIC) information criterion statistics are also estimated to decide on the appropriate model. ACF and PACF correlograms for residuals of ARIMA are used to do the diagnostic check of the selected ARIMA model. Appropriate model to forecast the new variety Areca nut price is ARIMA (3, 1, 3).

Keywords: investment behavior; Areca Nut; price forecasting; ARIMA models; volatility; time series; ACF; PACF; stock market forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.utgjiu.ro/revista/ec/pdf/2021-02/01_Kumar.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cbu:jrnlec:y:2021:v:2:p:4-18

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Annals - Economy Series from Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ecobici Nicolae ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).