The Second Wave of Pension Reforms (2009â€“2019): Transformation of Pension Systems Projection
T. V. Zhukova ()
Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law, 2020
This article is an extension ofÂ the article published in Â«Outlines of globalÂ transformations: politics, economics, lawÂ»Â â„– 6, 2019 [Zhukova 2019], in which explanation of pension waves formation mechanism, its integrationÂ in business-cycles, periodization and detailed analyses of the firstÂ wave of pension reforms are provided. InÂ this article based on new macroeconomic and forecasted demographic factors, detected episodes of pension reforms the timeÂ frame and the characteristics of the secondÂ wave (2009 â€“ 2019) is made, the third waveÂ (since 2020) is predicted. The second waveÂ in size is several years shorter than the firstÂ wave. It is characterized by more intensiveÂ and numerous pension reforms in the background of a similar number of macroeconomic shocks. TheÂ reasons for this are macroeconomic problems, the mass element ofÂ macroeconomic shocks connected with economic slowdown, budget deficits growth.The shrinking of the second-pillar pensionÂ system and its transformation into privateÂ hands become massive in scope. The reduction in the governmentâ€™s pension obligationsÂ is accelerated. The third wave (since 2020) isÂ expected to be the longest and the most intensive. The key characteristic is high probability of acroeconomic shocks connected with all macroeconomic factors sensitive for pension system to all groups of countries,Â passing the point of tightening of demographic pressures. The thrust of reform isÂ changed to contradictory courses of action.Â On the one hand state presence, pension system coverage will continue to grow. On theÂ other hand state guarantee (minimum pensions, age and another restrictions on retirement) will continue to decline. The growthÂ of solidarity of public pension systems, ofÂ Â«payments burdenÂ» on working people toÂ assure a minimum pensions for older persons, less dependence of the amount of theÂ pension on the total insurance paymentsÂ made are expected. Funded pensions willÂ become the responsibility of individually insured persons without the financial participation ofÂ the State.
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ccs:journl:y:2020:id:672
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