Preis- und Ertragsrisiken auf Agrarmärkten in Deutschland

Günther Filler, Martin Odening, Harald Grethe and Dieter Kirschke
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Günther Filler: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Dieter Kirschke: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture), 2010, vol. 3, issue 1, 77-108

Abstract: It is frequently stated that price risk in European agriculture in-creases due to the liberalization of formerly regulated markets. This argument is used to motivate the necessity of risk manage-ment and income stabilization for farms. Against this background we empirically investigate the price volatility of major agricultural commodities in Germany and its development over time. It turns out that the patterns of price volatility actually reflect the changes in the agricultural policy over the last two decades. While the vola-tility for milk and cereals increased considerably, this is not the case for hogs and rape. In second step we analyze the vulnerability of farms with regards to price and yield risk by means of stochas-tic simulation. Thereby we take into account the stochastic de-pendence between various prices and yields. Though it is difficult to draw general conclusions it is quite obvious that low performing farms are highly jeopardized by their risk exposure.

Keywords: Agricultural markets; price volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q11 Q13 Q14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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