Modelling structural-change-related shifts in labour input in the agent-based sector model SWISSland

Ali Ferjani and Albert Zimmermann
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Ali Ferjani: Agroscope Research Station, Ettenhausen, Switzerland
Albert Zimmermann: Agroscope Research Station, Ettenhausen, Switzerland

Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture), 2013, vol. 6, issue 1, 177-200

Abstract: An empirically-based approach was developed to forecast the use of family labour, external labour, contractors and off-farm work in the agentbased sector model SWISSland. The forecast was based on a two-phase procedure. In the first phase, a Bayesian network was used to estimate the agents’ most likely labour-adjustment strategies, bearing in mind their production resources. In the second phase, the optimal labour-input strategies were determined in the optimisation process. Since SWISSland is a recursive-dynamic optimisation model, both routines proceeded in annual time steps. A cluster analysis was carried out to determine the most common labour-input strategies in Switzerland. The results of this analysis were used to set up the Bayesian network and parameterise all observed labour-adjustment strategies in the single-farm optimisation model. The cluster results clearly demonstrated the interdependencies among family labour, external labour, contractors and off-farm work. The optimisation results showed that this method provides detailed forecasts for different labour categories.

Keywords: agent-based sector model; farm labour input; cluster analysis; structural change; Bayesian networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C61 Q12 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cha:ysa001:v:6:y:2013:i:1:p:177-200

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